Tournament Brackets — World Cup 2026 Predictor

Simulate the full 104-match World Cup 2026 bracket. Run Poisson-based projections and explore every possible knockout path — from the group stage through to the final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium.

How the Simulation Works

The bracket simulator uses a Dixon-Coles Poisson model seeded by World Football Elo ratings. For each match, expected goals are derived from the Elo gap between teams and converted into a probability distribution over all possible scorelines. When you run the simulation, tens of thousands of outcomes are sampled to produce win probabilities at each stage. A seeded pseudorandom number generator makes results reproducible — run the same simulation twice and you get the same bracket.

World Cup 2026 Knockout Format

After the group stage (June 11–26), 32 teams advance to the Round of 32. The bracket then proceeds through the Round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, the third-place match, and the Final. The expanded 48-team format means more upsets are possible — the field is broader and the gaps between teams smaller than in previous tournaments.

What You Can Explore

• Projected winner and finalist probabilities for every team
• Knockout bracket path for each nation
• Run the simulation multiple times to see alternate timelines
• Override group-stage results to see how upsets change the bracket