Tournament Insights — World Cup 2026 Analytics

Deep-dive analytics on the 2026 World Cup: upset rates, Elo accuracy tracking, and model performance as the tournament unfolds. See how well the predictions are holding up match by match.

Model Accuracy Tracking

Every completed match is scored against the pre-match prediction. The accuracy tracker records how often the model's favored team wins, how calibrated the probability estimates are, and where upsets occurred. As more matches are played, these figures sharpen into a reliable measure of model performance over the 104-match tournament.

Elo Recalibration

The prediction engine recalibrates World Football Elo ratings after every match result. A win by a heavy underdog produces a larger Elo shift than a win by the favorite. Watching Elo ratings move through the tournament reveals which teams are outperforming expectations and which are fading.

Upset Analysis

World Cup 2026's expanded field of 48 teams increases the probability of significant upsets in the group stage — teams from Africa, Asia, and CONCACAF now have more opportunities. The analytics section tracks actual vs. expected upset frequency and highlights the biggest surprises of the tournament.